Oil Prices Drop Into Negatives for the First Time Ever, Just in Time for Earth Day

As the pandemic sweeps across the world, a giant wrench has been thrown into the ever-turning gears of the economy. With the order to stay at home, America itself has seen a 47% drop in personal passenger travel (3/28-4/3 INRIX). While environmentalists rejoice, the oil industry has gone up in flames. Starting the year at $60 a barrel, the crushing lack of demand spirals it to its apotheosis on Monday, April 20th, where one barrel cost -$37 (NYTimes).

 Background Guide

Graph of crude oil prices since 2000. Source: The New York Times

 The world has an estimated 6.8 billion barrels of storage, but oil storages are already filled by 60%. To counteract the problem of the dwindling space, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have made deals to cut production by 10%. This cut in production is also meant to stabilize the market. Should this cut in production bring the supply of oil down to meet the demand, then the price can bounce back, but this change will take months to take effect in the market. 

With these changes to the oil industry, the question at hand is how will this affect the economy? No event has ever brought oil down to a negative price and this is detrimental to the world economy. With the world economy being 3.8% oil and gas alone (Investopedia), many nations are affected by these prices. Most notably, countries that have a high export of oil. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the US are the top 4 distributors of oil. 

This drop in price also affects many workers. Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources says that if the price of oil stayed around $20 a barrel for a while, 80 percent of the hundreds of independent oil companies would be forced into bankruptcy and 250,000 workers would lose their jobs. This projected unemployment would only add to the 4.4% unemployment rate from March 2020 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) as well as damage the US oil industry. However, for now, Sheffield says that $30 a barrel will leave many companies crippled, “But at least the industry will survive”(NYTimes). 

In the path of technological advancement, oil is the fuel that has driven us into modern times. With the upping of technology and the subsequent dreadnoughts and war machines that have resulted, oil has become a powerful resource sought after by superpowers. Acquisition of oil has been the center of numerous social, political, and economic conflicts and has remained the lifeblood of the technological era.

Discussion:

But do we want the oil industry to survive?

Could this finally be an opportunity to pursue alternative energy?

Once we emerge from the pandemic, what aspects of life will stay the same? What will change? 

Global Themes:

VI E. Explain the interconnected nature of global problems and their impact on economic development

Second Wave of Locusts, COVID-19 Present Dilemma to East Africa

Written by Natalie Teng and Halle Ichiuji

Sven Torfinn/FAO via AP

Locust Background Guide

A second wave of locusts is hitting East Africa, just as farmers have planted their crops and amidst a global pandemic, that officials say to be twenty times worse than the first. The locusts come just two months after the worst swarm of locusts in the area in over seventy years (Guardian). In an interview with the Associated Press, Uganda farmer Yoweri Aboket said, “Once [the locusts] land in your garden they do total destruction. Some people will even tell you that the locusts are more destructive than the coronavirus” (AP).

Most of the time, locusts are solitary creatures, but under the right circumstances, enter a gregarious phase that causes them to seek other locusts and to form massive and destructive swarms. In a single day, a single locust can eat its weight in plants and travel up to ninety miles. On that same day, a swarm of locusts covering just a third of a square mile can devour the crops needed to feed 35,000 people (Guardian). Some of the largest swarms can cover up to 460 square miles, or about twice the size of San Francisco (National Geographic). The locusts currently infesting East Africa were thought to have originated in the Empty Quarter, a sparsely populated desert region on the Arabian Peninsula. In a span of just 18 months, beginning in May 2018, three cyclones hit the area, providing the ideal conditions for the locusts to breed and jump over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden into the Horn of Africa. With each generation, the swarms increase exponentially in size and volume. As locusts have a short breeding cycle of about just three months, they have already multiplied by a factor of 8000 since the first cyclone, and estimates suggest by June, they will have increased by another 400-fold from current numbers (National Geographic). With the rainy season hitting the region now, the situation is almost assuredly going to worsen. A third outbreak of locusts is expected to hit Africa in biblical proportions this summer.

“While the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, the head of the United Nations food agency warned on Tuesday that a looming ‘hunger pandemic’ will bring ‘the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II’” 

- Linda Givetash, NBC News

The locusts and their voracious eating habits in this region are deeply concerning, as massive crop losses will lead to mass starvation and economic hardship. If the current crop, which has just been planted, fails because of the locust swarms, then it could wreak havoc on a region extremely vulnerable to famine. According to FAO, more than 13 million people in the Horn of Africa experience “severe acute food insecurity” with an additional 20 million barely above this threshold (National Geographic). Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is estimated that an additional 130 million people could be facing starvation by the end of this year (NBC News). In many villages, residents must choose between going outside to try to scare away the locusts and risk becoming a vehicle for the virus, or complying with lockdown orders and watching their food supply being devoured by the locusts (AP). The decrease in crops and food supply potentially has economic implications as well: inflation and the depreciation of currency in the region. This is concerning, as Vincent Phriri, an economist at NKC Afrikan Economics noted in an interview with CNBC, because a depreciation would “[pose] significant risks to public debt sustainability, as most East African countries already have considerable external debt stocks and have to pay down that debt in foreign currency, meaning that depreciating currencies make debt more unsustainable” (CNBC). The combination of locust and coronavirus provides a destabilizing environment for the states in the region.

Countries in the region are strapped for the necessary supplies and materials needed to combat locusts of this size and volume. Many countries are finding it difficult to acquire much-needed pesticides and supplies of personal protective equipment, as travel restrictions imposed due to the coronavirus are delaying the deliveries and preventing experts from traveling to train people on how to deal with the locusts (AP). Somalia's March order of pesticides has been delayed, leaving no resources to fight the locusts (Left Voice). Not only are these countries lacking pesticides, but also in a sufficient number aircrafts, as aerial spraying is one of the most effective techniques to fight the infestation (BBC). Helicopter surveillance to locate locust swarms have also been hampered by mandatory lockdowns in Kenya where pilots were quarantined for 14 days due to the coronavirus (Left Voice). The region will most likely need to be dependent on international support to weather the swarms and the destruction they leave in their wake. However, with the coronavirus, the locust issue will have trouble receiving enough global attention and humanitarian aid (Wired). If response to the situation is too far delayed, the spread of locust swarms show no sign of slowing until all the food and crops in the area have been devoured, the same food and crops that sustain the farmers and residents in the area.

Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of people will face food shortages and economic catastrophe. This plays to the interconnectedness of global problems and their impact on economic development (VI.E), as not only is the pandemic going to staunch the economy, but it has also inadvertently slowed the response to the locusts through lockdowns and travel bans, and inevitable enabled a further spread of the swarms and additional economic losses. While not to detract from the severity of the coronavirus, intergovernmental agencies are currently pouring more money into wealthier states than poorer ones addled with additional debilitating issues, such as those in East Africa, relating to the theme of to what extent these organizations serve the interests of the global elite rather than of humanity (II.F). Without the financial assistance from wealthy nations and the aid from humanitarian organizations, the people of Africa will suffer from severe food shortages when the locust plague destroys their crops. With Africa’s international debt, wealthy nations have a vested interest in Africa’s economic stability. Historically, humanitarian aid from organizations, such as WHO and FAO, have come to Africa’s aid during a time of crisis and inevitably protected the financial interests of the global elite. The locust plague combined with the coronavirus highlights the need for developed nations to commit to helping African countries attain economic stability, thus ending international dependency.

Discussion Questions

1. How much funding and attention should be allocated to combatting the locusts in this region amidst a global pandemic? 
2. Why might countries be reluctant to provide aid to others in today’s age?
3. How has African nations’ dependence on international support helped perpetrate this issue?

Cardinal Acquitted of Sex Charges

Written by Natalie Teng

Micheal Dodge/Getty Images

Cardinal George Pell, pictured in December 2018, when he was convicted on
five counts of sexual abuse.

Australia's High Court dismissed sexual assault charges earlier this month against the highest profile Catholic Church official to ever be charged with sexual offense allegations. On April 7, Cardinal George Pell, the former Vatican’s Secretariat for the Economy and former archbishop of Melbourne and Sydney, had his 2018 guilty verdict by a jury dismissed due to “‘compounding improbabilities’ caused by conflicting accounts from Pell’s main accuser and other witnesses” (NYT). However, the testimony of the main accuser, in which the judges deemed crucial to the entire case, has never been released to the public, not in partial nor redacted form. Therefore, no one outside the court can corroborate such claims, and sparking additional scrutiny over a case that has been embroiled in controversy and secrecy from the beginning.

In June 2017, Pell was arrested based on several allegations of sexual assault during his time as a priest in Australia. Prosecutors sought to pursue multiple charges against Pell relating to these allegations. However, many of these charges were later dismissed due to lack of witness credibility, and the remaining cases were split into two separate trials (Guardian). The court issued a suppression order while both cases were in progress and barred journalists from reporting on the trials and allegations against Pell. The order covered seemingly trivial details, such as the number of people involved in the original complaint and the suppression order itself, claiming this was done to prevent jury biases and to protect the identities of those who came forth with evidence. The scope of the order not only covered Australian news services, but also larger international news publications (NYT). In one such case, a book titled Cardinal: The Rise and Fall of George Pell by journalist Louise Milligan was taken off shelves in order to avoid being in contempt of the court (NYT). As described in a New York Times article, the order was both to be revered and criticized:

To some, that suppression of information will be seen as a triumph of justice, a noble win for local self-determination and the rule of law. To others it will be seen as an act that, however well intended, undermines transparency and accountability in a case that much of the world would desperately like to discuss (NYT).

In December 2018, Pell was convicted on five counts of “historical child sexual offences” (NPR). However, this verdict itself was not reported until two months later, as a second trial against Pell was allegedly still ongoing (NYT).

The panel of seven judges on the High Court acquitted Pell of his guilty charges on the basis of discrepancies in witness testimonies and that of the main accuser, who was thirteen at the time of his alleged abuse in 1996. However, such testimonies have never been released to the public in any form, a decision that has stoked controversy. In an interview with the New York Times, Jason Bosland, a law professor at Melbourne University said, “The only way the judicial branch of government is held accountable is through the principle of open justice, and that requires the public to be given as much information as possible” (NYT). The court stated that its refusal to release this information was done in order to comply with Australian sexual abuse laws, under which identities of child victims must be protected. However, the court’s lack of transparency promotes a public distrust with the Australian judicial system and undermines its accountability. Critics claim that the sexual abuse laws could have been upheld even if the testimony were to be released to the public. This, combined with the complete override of a jury verdict, is leading many to question the power of the judges and how much they value accountability to the public (NYT).

The suppression order particularly relates to how the changing nature of media as a platform for human interaction from print to internet and social media affects politics, economics, and social affairs (V.C). In the past, suppression orders were easier to enforce and control when the media was only done in print. However, with this case, while Australian and large news publications were not allowed to report on the subject, it was harder to enforce such orders on the numerous smaller online news sources around the world from reporting (NYT). This also raises the question on how much a government should be able to censor information and how much power the courts and judicial systems should have, especially in the name of maintaining trust with the public.

Vocabulary

• Suppression order: order restricting certain information from being made public, also known as a gag order
• High Court: highest court in Australia's judicial system

Discussion Questions

1. How much power should local jurisdictions and governments be able to have over international news publications?
2. What level of transparency is needed to establish open justice? What other components would be necessary to establish this?

Looming COVID-19 Crisis Forces Africa’s Leaders to Face Their Underdeveloped Healthcare Systems

Written by Halle Ichiuji

(Source: CNN)

For years, Africa’s ailing government officials flew to developed nations for their healthcare needs, often at the expense of taxpayers' money. Cameroon’s Paul Biya regularly seeks treatment abroad and Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe died in a hospital in Singapore. With worldwide flights grounded due to the coronavirus pandemic, African leaders and elites are unable to seek medical care abroad and forced to turn their attention to their own healthcare systems. This brings to light Africa’s neglected healthcare system which has been underfunded for years (CNN). 

So far there have been few reported coronavirus cases in Africa in comparison to many developed nations. The first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported in Liberia, followed by a few dozen cases in March (WEF). But like other countries where the COVID-19 appeared in isolated cases, it’s only a matter of time before the pandemic hits in full force. When this happens, Africa’s underfunded health care systems will be overwhelmed and unable to handle the escalating outbreaks of this disease (WEF). Central Africa Republic (CAR), among the poorest African nations, is one of the least prepared countries to face the pandemic. With only 3 ventilators supporting a country of 5 million, along with its dense populations and poor sanitation, the stage is set for a catastrophe (The Atlantic). Ill equipped to properly treat patients, Zimbabwe medics described the poor hospital conditions as causing “silent genocide” (CNN). Africa has little hope of an effective international response when developed countries have their own challenges controlling the coronavirus. This is troubling because Africa relies heavily on humanitarian aid to meet its healthcare needs. The U.S. and U.K. are busy securing enough ventilators and protective equipment for its own citizens. Also, the support of humanitarian medical aid, which many African nations heavily rely upon, will be severely impacted due to the suspension of international flights. 70% of CAR’s healthcare services are dependent on these aid organizations (NRC). 

Providing public healthcare has not been a priority for many African governments. In 2001, 52 African nations met in Nigeria and pledged to spend 15% of their national budget on healthcare (CNN). According to the WHO,  Tanzania, Rwanda, Botswana, and Zambia are the only countries who have met that pledge. Providing public healthcare has not been a priority for many African governments. For instance,  in 2018, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari traveled four times to the UK to treat an undisclosed illness. Many argued that the money spent on Buhari’s medical care could have been used toward Nigeria’s healthcare system. It was stated that President Buhari “just loves flying around,” which characterizes an elitist attitude and lack of concern for his own people (CNN). In the time of the COVID-19 pandemic and tight travel restrictions, African leaders will be forced to take a bigger look and stance on their healthcare systems.

This topic demonstrates the difficulty in building successful national institutions where political leaders place their individual interests over the needs of the people whom they serve. Over the years, Africa’s poorly funded healthcare systems have faced multiple crises, such as ebola and HIV (Washington Times), while its leaders received medical care abroad. Now that international airports have closed due to COVID-19, government elites will have to take their chances at home.

Discussion Questions:

1. Should developed countries, who provide humanitarian aid, hold African leaders accountable for their actions?
2. Why do the general population allow corrupt politicians to prevail?

FBI Uncovers Face Mask Scam While Trying to Intercept the Order

By Jonathan Gu

With the rising influx of patients, the demand for treatment equipment has also risen. But with each state scrambling to acquire equipment, fraud and scams have infiltrated the market amidst the confusion. According to the Los Angeles Times, on March 26 the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU) announced to the Californian public that they had secured an order of 39 million N-95 masks from 3M, the largest US-based face mask producer. Large hospitals such as Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health agreed to join the deal while hospitals that withheld were heavily criticized. The deal was made with a Pittsburgh businessman who acted as a middleman between the Union and an Australian broker.  The supplier requested a 40% down payment and further payment details later, but also stated that a portion of the masks were already in a warehouse in Georgia.

The FBI took note of this arrangement when scouting out medical protective gear orders to intercept for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under the Defense Production Act. According to the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), “The Defense Production Act – which allows the federal government to gain priority over protective equipment from private companies or state and local governments – was the purported justification for pursuing such measures”. Regardless, when the FBI went to retrieve the masks from the Georgian Warehouse there was no such thing. Additionally, 3M stated that they had only produced 20 million over the course of the year. 

The OCCRP says that “While the White House has stated that it is using a data-driven approach to distribute medical equipment to where it is needed most, hospital officials and state-level politicians have voiced their frustration and confusion”. Jared Polis, Governor of Colorado, told CNN, "We're competing against any other state, every other country," he said. "Now we're even competing against the federal government,". The Defense Production Act is by no means a tyrannical order, but with each state fighting their own battles with the virus and trying to quell public panic, it is surely frustrating. The internal conflict of the nation relates to the course theme of balancing “hard power” and “soft power” to most effectively achieve its goals.

Discussion:

 Would it be right to nationalize all related industries if it meant increased production and distribution of medical equipment? How would it affect business, the public, and the workers?

The Impact of Coronavirus

Since the beginning of the coronavirus, we have started to stay home and practice social distancing to help curb the spread of the virus and lessen the load on our healthcare system. Non-essential businesses have shut down as this pandemic continues to spread. People are working from home if they can, but many are also now out of a job. Schools are also shut down for the rest of the school year and times are changing. 

While the quarantine is put in place to help keep us safe, many aspects of our society are suffering.  With many of the things we do being outside and public, many are now left at home with little or nothing to do.  People are starting to get cabin fever and this “quarantine madness” has people yearning to get back out into the world. Just this week, CNN detailed how thousand flocked to beaches amid the heat-wave that hit the Los Angeles area. 

During the shutdown, local businesses are also being crippled and people are being left without a job. Almost 4.4% of people were unemployed in the US as of March 2020 and that number is expected to climb in April as the quarantine continues (Bureau of Labor Statistics). People who have lost their jobs have started to turn to alternative sources of income as detailed in these articles by CNN and Forbes. Many of the people who have been laid off have applied for unemployment, but some peoples’ applications have been pending for weeks due to the overload of traffic which only serves as evidence that the unemployment problem is only going to get worse.

With the effects of the quarantine already taking its toll on daily life, and things only looking to get worse, the question must be asked. How much longer can we stay in quarantine? If we cannot find any long term solutions for the problems that come with the quarantine, how much longer can this up?

Sources:

Andone, Dakin, and Paul Vercammen. “People Crowd Southern California Beaches despite Coronavirus Concerns.” CNN, Cable News Network, 26 Apr. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/us/southern-california-beaches-coronavirus-heat/index.html.

Chavez, Nicole, and Dominic Torres. “These Workers Lost Their Jobs to the Coronavirus Pandemic. Here's How They Are Hustling to Survive.” CNN, Cable News Network, 26 Apr. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/us/gig-workers-informal-jobs-coronavirus/index.html.

Hannon, Kerry. “How The Coronavirus Is Impacting Small Business Owners.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 27 Mar. 2020, www.forbes.com/sites/nextavenue/2020/03/23/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-small-business-owners/#4071cba473ac

          https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

COVID-19 Used to Stop Access to Safe and Legal Abortion

By: Genevieve Bigue, Emma Quanbeck, and Arissa Low

Abortion was first made legal in the US in 1973 after the Supreme Court Case Roe vs. Wade. Since then, abortion has been a highly controversial topic and has been the spark of protesting across America. The Hyde Amendment was enacted in 1976 and has blocked federal Medicaid funding from abortion nationwide. In 2007, the US Supreme Court passed a federal law banning abortion in “partial-birth.” It is argued that this ban gave anti-abortion politicians a loophole to pass other abortion restrictions. In 2019, 11 US states passed laws restricting access to abortions based on how far along the pregnancy can be terminated. This was added to a total of 43 states nationwide, with abortion restrictions.

Protests from abortion rights activists in Washington

Taken by: Shawn Thew/EPA, via Shutterstock

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/covid-abortion-ohio-texas.html

On March 22, both Texas and Ohio banned medical procedures that aren’t necessary which includes abortion. Two days later, Oklahoma ordered the same ban where Gov. Kevin Stitt made sure to specifically include “prohibiting abortion specifically” (Planned Parenthood). Soon after, Iowa and Alabama followed the non-essential surgical procedure ban. A hundred and fifty appointments were canceled in Texas and there were reports that “patients cried and expressed feelings of helplessness” (Planned Parenthood). Planned Parenthood, the Center of Reproductive Rights, and the Lawyering Project filed a lawsuit against the ban where a judge blocked Texas “from banning abortion as part of the state’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.” However, a day later, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the ban. 

In Ohio, “American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), ACLU of Ohio, and Planned Parenthood Federation of America (PPFA), along with local Ohio lawyers” (Planned Parenthood) went to court to ensure that abortion clinics could stay open, so time-sensitive appointments could receive treatment. The judge “granted Ohio abortion providers a temporary restraining order to allow abortion services to continue for the time being” (Planned Parenthood). 

In early March, Alabama banned non-essential health care which didn’t include abortions. However, clinics began receiving phone calls “from protesters threatening to report them to the health department for remaining open” (Planned Parenthood). Later, Alabama's attorney general expanded the ban to include all non-essential medical procedures forcing clinics to close. The ACLU and Alabama abortion providers sued the state Departments of Public Health where they won and were able to block the policy, making it safe and legal to receive abortion care in Alabama. 

This event connects to the global theme of how fear can cause and prevent conflict. The rising fear and panic about the Coronavirus have led politicians against Pro-choice to use the COVID-19 pandemic to restrict women’s rights to abortion, creating conflict as many women feel helpless and restricted. Many begin to question whether the administrations that put these orders in place trying to prevent further outbreak of Coronavirus, or if they are they using this pandemic as an excuse to suppress women’s right to choose and access abortions.

Discussion Questions: 

Do you think abortion should be considered an essential health service?

Should abortions have restrictions for the time period in which you can get them?

Sources:

https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/issues/abortion/federal-and-state-bans-and-restrictions-abortion

https://ballotpedia.org/Abortion_regulations_by_state

https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws

https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/blog/anti-abortion-politicians-use-covid-19-crisis-to-attempt-to-stop-access-to-safe-legal-abortion