North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectiles

By Colin Shew

On Monday, March 9, North Korea fired four unidentified projectiles from Sondok, following previous “military exercises” that took place on February 28 and March 2 where two more unidentified projectiles had been fired. This CNN article relays the event and notes that South Korea’s Defense Ministry “believed the launches violated agreements reached with Pyongyang in 2018 intended to ease military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.” These agreements made at the Pyongyang summit created buffer zones near the MDL (Military Demarcation Line) and NLL (Northern Limit Line) between the two countries in which “live-fire artillery drills, major maneuvers, and new weapons will not be permitted,” as explained in this article from The Diplomat. 

Here are a few excerpts from the CNN article outlining some background for what took place in March:

The country [North Korea] test-fired missiles 13 times in 2019 amid stalled talks with the United States, though Pyongyang refrained from firing the intercontinental-range missiles that are particularly worrying to the Trump administration.

Kim had warned the US in 2019 that it had until the end of that year to jump start the stalled denuclearization talks. When that deadline came and went without any movement from Washington, Kim announced during a New Year's Day message that his country would bolster its nuclear deterrent, and no longer be held to a self-imposed moratorium on major weapons testing. Kim also pledged to show off a "new strategic weapon" in the near future.

Experts said the "strategic weapon" may mean an advanced type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). These latest tests do not appear to be that promised "strategic weapon," analysts say.

The article then gives some insight on possible reasoning for the firings:

Though weapons tests are important for developmental purposes, North Korea's military moves are often timed for maximum political impact both at home and abroad.

To his domestic audience, Kim projects strength in the face of perceived external threats. Beyond its borders, launches are often perceived as an attempt to get back on the global radar.

This ultimately connects to the course theme relating to the effect of domestic politics on foreign policy choices made by nation-states. Kim Jong-un’s motive for firing the projectiles may have been that he needs to appear as a strong leader and therefore must demonstrate his power by making perhaps globally impactful decisions. However, those decisions come with the consequence of dealing with other nations and their concerns. They may grow fearful and push for demilitarization or denuclearization, decreasing Kim’s power. But, then, wouldn’t Kim perform more extreme military acts to make himself appear powerful to the people of North Korea once again? It’s impossible to say for certain why the projectiles were fired, but it is not something to simply brush aside.

Discussion Questions:

Do you think these projectiles pose a potential threat? How big or small? Why?

What do you think is likely to be the motive behind the projectile launches?